The Bradley Effect

The Bradley Effect is when white voters overstate their support in polls to minority candidates. The Bradley Effect came about when in Tom Bradley the mayor of Los Angeles lost the 1982 California Governor’s race despite leading in the polls. Since then there have been several cases when the black candidates’ results on Election Day were skewed from polling results. Since Obama is an African-American, many wonder if the Bradley Effect is going to cost him the election. With Obama up in the polls, some wonder if white voters are overstating their interest in Obama. It is believed a white voter would do that to show that they are not prejudice. However, once they vote they vote for the other candidate since no one will know how they voted since it is anonymous.

I do not think that election will see a very large Bradley Effect is anything at all. First, a lot of the elections where the Bradley Effect came into play were over a decade ago. I like to think that we have come a long way in pushing aside our prejudices as a nation. Secondly, if you look at the democratic primaries, the poll numbers between Hillary and Obama were fairly accurate for every state. The only state that was a surprise as New Hampshire where Clinton won and Obama had a 7 to 10 point lead in the polls. The bottom line is that I would be surprised if there is more than a 1 to 2 point swing to McCain.

In actuality, there may very well be a "reverse Bradley Effect" in this election. This occurs when whites vote for a black person to prove to themselves they are not prejudice. This is ridiculous, but it can happen. Rational people do not have to do this to prove they are not prejudice. For instance, I know I could vote for any one of a number of black candidates if they were running for President (Condoleezza Rice, Michael Steele, or even Bill Cosby). I just cannot vote for a black candidate that says he will bridge divides by being partisan when his record is nothing but bi-partisan. The reverse Bradley Effect can also occur when whites openly admit they will vote for McCain to their conservative cohorts, but will vote for Obama in the booth. I definitely think this can happen.